Supply Constraints Hampering iPhone Sales?

Here’s an anomaly in the otherwise ebullient parade of research notes on Apple (AAPL) lately: An analyst lowering his iPhone sales forecast. Observing that near-term Street estimates on iPhone sales are “likely too aggressive due to inventory drawdown and supply constraints,” Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu slashed his June quarter iPhone forecast to 7.5 million units from 9 million–a cut of about 20 percent.

“Based on our more detailed analysis of supply chain data we are shifting our iPhone assumptions to latter quarters due to the high likelihood that an inventory drawdown and screen supply constraints could impact near-term shipments over the next two quarters,” Wu wrote. “We believe most Street estimates have not factored this in and thus we believe consensus at 8.5 million iPhones for the June quarter may likely prove too aggressive.”

No such issues for the iPad, though. For that device, Wu raised his forecast. He now expects June quarter iPad sales of 3.5 million–up from 3.3 million. For calendar 2010, he’s looking for sales of 10 million–up from 9.7 million.